French Polynesia Projected Population Growth (1950-2100)

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French Polynesia, a French overseas collectivity located in the South Pacific, is home to over 100 islands including Tahiti, Bora Bora, and Moorea. Known worldwide for its stunning lagoons and coral reefs, it also has a unique demographic trajectory.

In 1950, French Polynesia’s population was just 64,000 people. By 2023, the population had grown to about 281,000, more than quadrupling in seven decades. However, demographic forecasts suggest the islands’ population will plateau mid-century and gradually decline, falling to about 187,000 by 2100.

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French Polynesia Historical Population Growth (1950–2024)

French Polynesia experienced rapid growth in the second half of the 20th century.

• 1950: 64,000 residents
• 1970: 114,000 residents
• 1990: 204,000 residents
• 2010: 271,000 residents
• 2023: 281,000 residents

This growth was fueled by:

• Improved healthcare leading to lower mortality rates
• High fertility rates during the mid-20th century
• Urban migration toward Papeete and Tahiti’s coastal zones

By the early 2000s, growth began to stabilize, as fertility declined and outward migration increased.

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French Polynesia Future Population Projections (2025–2100)

Future forecasts show French Polynesia’s population peaking around mid-century, followed by a slow but steady decline:

• 2030: 286,000
• 2050: 285,000 (peak population)
• 2075: 241,000
• 2100: 187,000

The main reasons behind this decline include:

• Lower birth rates as fertility approaches global averages
• Youth migration to mainland France, New Zealand, and Australia
• Aging population, with more seniors and fewer young residents

FAQ

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Source:

United Nations. World Population Prospects 2024.

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